Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of CounterintuitionHarvard Business Review Press, 6 de nov. de 2012 - 224 páginas No matter your field, industry, or specialty, as a leader you make a series of crucial decisions every single day. And the harsh truth is that the majority of decisions—no matter how good the intentions behind them—are mismanaged, resulting in a huge toll on organizations, the people they employ, and even the people they serve. So why is it so hard to make sound decisions? In Think Twice, now in paperback, Michael Mauboussin argues that we often fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable. In this engaging book, Mauboussin shows us how to recognize and avoid common mental missteps. These include misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages, not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision, and relying too much on experts. Through vivid stories, the author presents memorable rules for avoiding each error and explains how to recognize when you should “think twice”—questioning your reasoning and adopting decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive. Armed with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization. |
Conteúdo
| 1 | |
Open to Options | |
The Expert Squeeze | |
Situational Awareness | |
More Is Different | |
Evidence of Circumstance | |
Grand AhWhooms | |
Conclusion | |
Chapter 4 | |
Outras edições - Ver todos
Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition Michael J. Mauboussin Prévia não disponível - 2012 |
Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition Michael J. Mauboussin Prévia não disponível - 2009 |
Termos e frases comuns
Amos Tversky Asch asked attributes Battlefield Bazerman bees behavior bias Big Brown birth order black swan Blotto game Business School Cambridge cause and effect Chapter checklist choices Colonel Blotto game complex adaptive system complex systems confirmation bias consider correlation create Daniel Kahneman David decisions diversity doctors example experts explain figure forecast fundamental attribution error halo effect Harvard Business Review Harvard Business School Here’s Heuristics incentives individual Intuitive investment investors Judgment lead Long-Term Capital Management Management Mauboussin mental Michael Millennium Bridge mistake Norse Norton & Company outcomes Outsourcing patients Paul percent performance phase transitions player positive feedback prediction Prediction Markets problem Random recognize researchers role scientists shows simple situation skill and luck social influence Social Psychology stock market strategy success Sulloway’s theory Thomas Gilovich understand W.W. Norton winning wisdom of crowds York Zimbardo
