of lakes from all quarters of the world. To these points, as they offer the best water way to the Atlantic and the best centers of distribution around the lake borders, will be directed the commerce of the North Pacific Ocean, in its passage across the continent. The productions of Eastern Asia and the North Pacific Islands, transported by the Pacific railway to the navigable waters of the Missouri, may reach these lake ports on steam propelled boats or steam drawn cars, and, there, meet and be exchanged for products brought from the shores of the Atlantic, in large steamers and by railroad. At present, and until a much larger capital is accumulated in the lake cities, this commerce of ocean with ocean will be carried on, chiefly, at New York. By the time the Pacific railroad is completed, there will be a great change in the ability of the lake cities to participate in the new commeree which it will create.

This

The

If the ocean commerce were alone considered, New York would be their best emporium. Foreign commerce is of great importance, but our domestic commerce is, almost immeasurably, more important. can be carried on to better advantage in central positions of the continent than on its borders. The more central the position to the home productions to be interchanged, other advantages being equal, the better the location for domestic commerce. The center of population of the United States, and also of the U. S. embracing the Canadas, is in southeastern Ohio. It is moving every year, in a line considerably north-of-west, about four miles, in the direction of the west end of lake Erie. center of the productive capabilites of the continent, when well improved, will be as far in the interior as Chicago; probably many miles northwestward of that city. But as our commerce with the Atlantic borders, on both sides of the ocean, will, for a long time to come-probably for all time to come-be greater than with the countries on the Pacific, the center of industrial power will always be eastward of the center of population of our country. It will be quite within the limits of truth to assert that the home commerce of the continent is ten times greater than its commerce with all the world besides. The best position for the concentration of this home commerce, other things being equal, will, then, be worth ten times as much as the best position for external commerce. For the concentration of interior or home commerce, the best location will be the city nearest the center of industrial power, provided it has adequate channels for transport and other facilities for the healthful support of a large commerce and a large population. Such are the positions of Toledo and Chicago. Is it reasonable to anticipate for these young cities a very high destiny? Will it seem absurd to expect one or both to come up to the stature of great capitals, such as New York, London, and Paris, by the year 1962? We submit some facts which look in that direction. The tendency of the commerce of the great North American plain to center in the lake cities has been manifest from their commencement, and especially during the last fifteen years. The increase of population from 1850 to 1860 was

Twenty years ago it was generally believed that our largest interior cities would grow up on the great interior rivers. Experience has since demonstrated that our interior commerce prefers to concentrate on the borders of our great lakes. It can no longer be doubted, by well informed persons, that these lakes will draw to their waters and concentrate in their cities a greater commerce than will the great interior rivers. The superior growth of the commerce and population of the chief cities of the lakes, from 1850 to 1860, proves this to have become the rule of the past. The increase of population of the ten largest lake cities, as the foregoing table shows, was more than twice as rapid as that of the ten largest river cities. The proportionate increase of their commerce was much greater. Of the ten largest lake cities, Chicago and Toledo exhibit much the most rapid growth in commerce and population-the former having gained 265 per cent and the latter 260 per cent. These cities having the most commanding positions are to be the future rivals for leadership. Each has great and peculiar claims to become, one day, he great city of the lakes. It will, probably, be long before it is settled which has the best position for concentrating a great commerce. Toledo has, at present, not more than one-seventh the number of inhabitants in Chicago. This places her at great disadvantage in the start. Can it be overcome? Philadelphia was, once, much more populous and wealthy than New York. Business and wealth change the field of their operations, in our day, more readily than many years ago. People change their places of residence with much more ease and less reluctance than formerly. The whole human race is becoming mobile. We may, therefore, put less stress on the advantage of greater size. The best natural position for be oming the great city of the lakes, within the next hundred years, is believed to belong to Toledo. Artificial channels of trade, already in use, are not wanting, and it is but reasonable to expect they will be multiplied to meet the exigencies of its growing commerce. Has Toledo the better natural position? Let us, with candor, enumerate the peculiar advantages of each. Toledo is nearer to the British provinces north and northeast of the lakes and much more convenient for the exchange of the exportable products of these provinces, transported by water or by land, for the exportable products of the interior States west and southwest of Toledo and Chicago. These provinces now contain some three millions and-a-half of people, and increase nearly as fast as the Northwestern States. Their numbers increasing at the same rate as that of all the States of our Union, since 1790, would become upwards of seventy millions in one hundred years. Whether incorporated with us or constituted an independent nation, these provinces will form an important part of our commercial world. The natural resources of this extensive region are very great and will be developed into immense wealth by the intelligent and active race who are filling it with people.

Proximity, facility of access in time and cost, other things being equal, will determine the preference of one commercial position over another. The British provinces of the North constitute but a small portion of the commercial world that is nearer to Toledo than to Chicago, and, so should prefer it, as a place of resort, for the interchange of its commodities. By drawing, on the map, a line of equal distance between the two cities it will be seen that, eastward of that line, there exists, and for a long time there must continue to exist, a great preponderance of population and

wealth over the region westward of that line. This dividing line will give Toledo the lower portions of lakes Superior and Michigan, and, in its course southward, will pass through South Bend and Indianapolis, west of Louisville, and meet the gulf near Pensacola. If the commerce of North America be alone considered, there is scarcely room for doubt that Toledo is the more favorable point for its present concentration. There is not only much more population east of the line, but it possesses, in proportion to numbers, much greater wealth-producing power. How will the balance stand when half the century, allowed for the race between these cities, shall have passed? The United States and British provinces will then contain over one hundred millions of people. Will the center of their commercial power then be nearer Chicago than Toledo? Clearly not. The probability is that the greater portion of the hundred millions will live east of the line of equal distance; and there cannot be a doubt that the preponderance of wealth and resources, in proportion to numbers, will be on the Toledo side. The available channels of commerce of both cities are now ample for the present condition of the country; and it may be safely assumed that they will be improved and increased as rapidly on the Toledo as on the Chicago side of the line. Will the center of commercial power of the continent, before the end of a century, be west of the line of equal distance between Chicago and Toledo? It is probable that the center of population will reach that line, and quite possible that it may, in its westward movement, reach and pass Chicago. But, the center of population and the center of commercial power are quite distinct and, often, distant from each other. Our calculations, intended to show the future center of the commercial power of our continent, must embrace the whole commercial world. We must also estimate, approximately, as well as we can, the relative commercial value of the different populations in North America and beyond it. This value will depend, chiefly, on proximity, industry, capital, and enterprise. Proximity, near neighborhood, has much to do with the number and amount of commercial transactions of every community. Persons of different occupations, in a city, within a few doors of each other, on the same block, on the same side of the street, on the same street, in the same quarter of the city make more exchanges, buy and sell more with each other, other things being equal, than with people more remote or more difficult of access. Whatever can be procured in the city of one's residence will be bought there rather than in the next city; and the city near at hand will be called on to supply what the city of our residence cannot so well furnish, in preference to a city more distant. It is proba ble that the people of the city of New York, with its immediate dependencies, numbering a million and-a-quarter, carry on more commerce with each other and with the rest of the world, in number of transactions and in amount of values, than any five millions in the valley of the Missis sippi. The advantages of easy co-operation in industrial pursuits, which proximity confers, constitute an essential element in the growth of cities which prosper by virtue of natural advantages. Toledo therefore, being nearer the chief centers of industrial power of North America and the world, may be expected to have more commercial transactions, other advantages being equal, than Chicago.

The numerical preponderance of the country nearer Toledo does not fully represent its comparative industrial ability. The industry of the

Northern Atlantic and the Eastern Lake States is much more developed and varied, and, in consequence, more productive of articles which sustain commerce than is the industry of the country nearer Chicago.

Accumulated capital is an important element in any calculation for fixing the center of commercial power. At present, most of the available capital of the world is on the Toledo side of the line. Northwestern Europe and the eastern portion of our Republic are the chief points of accumulation from which it flows along the large channels of trade towards the most promising seats of western commerce. Much of the surplus capital on the other side of the Atlantic, beyond what is wanted for home use, is, with more or less constancy, brought to the United States and provinces north of us for investment. In its westward course, after supplying the cities east of the lakes, it flows over, in smaller streams, into our lake and river cities. The western cities first reached, other things being equal, will have the preference for its lodgement. It has had an important agency in the building up of Buffalo, Erie, Cleveland, Detroit, Toledo, Chicago, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and other lake and river cities. Much of this capital has come in the pockets of immigrants, who have also added to the growth of these cities by their labor and skill even more than by their money. The accretions to the lake cities from this source naturally fall, in largest measure, into those nearest the source of supply. New York being the principal place of debarkation, most of the immigrants, in their progress westward, take the New York channels canals and railroads. To be situated on the principal route of a large immigration is now, as it ever has been, a great advan tage to cities. Witness the growth of cities along the Erie Canal, when that was the principal thoroughfare of our migrating people westward. Trace the line of immigration through Bremen, Havre, and Liverpool, New York, Albany, Buffalo, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, and thence westward, and you will not fail to perceive how fructifying are the constant accretions, by the way, which this steady current of migration produces. This swelling tide of human beings has been checked for a season only, to break over its barriers and flow in a larger and fuller current in the future. This will be hastened and heightened by the effect of the late law of Congress donating land to settlers on the public domain. A fair estimate of the industrial character of the inbabitants about these cities may be predicated on the character of the country in which they are located respectively. Toledo is surrounded, to a large extent, by a timbered region of such great fertility as to be inviting only to the most healthy and resolute agriculturists as settlers. Lazy or irresolute pioneers will not encounter the labor needed to subdue the dense forest. Only bold hearts and strong arms are equal to the task of converting the forest into smiling meadows, wheat fields, and orchards. But, when the forest is subdued, not only will these fields be more certain of a profitable return, in large crops; but the strong hearts and arms will be there to add good houses and barns, orchards and roads, and to do whatever else is needful to build up a civilized society. This resolute population will be just in the place where the best returns for the most various cultivation may be expected to result. It is, in climate, the best fruit-growing section of the great interior plain; and, in adaptation of soil, it is equal to the best. A dense as well as an industrious population will result, giving a decided advantage to Toledo.

Chicago is bounded, on the south side, for many miles, by a flat prairie, not adapted to fruit growing, and very bleak and uninviting to the small farmer. Well drained, it will produce good crops of corn, oats, and grass when the season is not very wet or very dry. For winter wheat and for grass it is quite inferior to land of like fertility cleared from the forest, and less certain in unfavorable seasons to produce good summer crops. These objections apply, chiefly, to the flat prairies near Chicago; but, with less force, they are applicable also to the rolling prairies at a greater distance. The advantages to the former, of timber land, cannot be duly appreciated without experience of their privation. Fuel, fences, buildings, repairs of tools, protection from the wintry blasts and summer heats these come up in the mind of the settler with great force. But, the superiority of the wooded region, and especially that about the west end of lake Erie, for fruit growing, should give it an unhesitating preference over the prairie countries by every intelligent seeker for the best place for cultivating fruit. There are but small portions of the settled parts of our extensive country in which a crop of the best fruits of a temperate climate can be relied on with reasonable certainty from year to year. Among these may be unhesitatingly placed the southwestern borders of lake Erie. In spring, the cool winds from the thawing ice keep back vegetation so as, usually, to save fruit buds from killing frosts. The autumn frosts are likewise delayed, near the lake waters, giving time for late-ripening fruits to mature, and for wood and fruit buds to mature so as to perfect their growth and round out the year of vegetable life.

An improvement, long contemplated as a possible exploit of a future generation, may have the effect to give to Toledo commercial advantages above and beyond those of Chicago. A large canal across the base of the peninsula of Michigan, to connect the navigable waters of lakes Erie and Michigan, is among the possible achievments of the future. Surveys have proved its practicability. The only summit level is less than four hundred feet above the lakes. Such canal carried westward down the Hankakee or Calumet valley, to connect with the enlarged Illinois Canal, would give the best practicable water channel of commerce between Lake Erie and the center of commerce of the Mississippi valley, at St. Louis. The distance by this route, as compared with that by way of Chicago, lakes Michigan, Huron, and St. Clair, would be shortened about four hundred and fifty miles, avoiding much risk and some delay. Early in Spring and late in Autumn, it would be likely to take the place of the lake routes, to a great extent. On articles of high value in proportion to weight, the saving of insurance would be equal to a fair freight charge. If, in addition to the improvement of the Illinois River, as recommended to Congress, fitting it for the passage of river and lake steamers, a short canal of equal capacity to the contemplated enlarged Illinois Canal were constructed, to connect its navigation with that of the upper Mississippi, at the mouth of Rock River, a great extension of easy commercial intercourse, by water, between the Mississippi basin and the lake basin, would be effected. Commercially, the Mississippi at Rock Island, would be turned from its natural course and flow eastward into the great lakes at Chicago and Toledo. By the improvement of the Illinois River to the entrance of the canals, from the East, the Missouri River will be turned, commercially, northeastward into the same channel. The instrumentalities to be used in the navigation of the canals, rivers, and lakes,