The increase of population in the United States of America, is a living and most instructive example, far superior in efficacy to all the theories of philosophers. It shews in detail the advantages of that popular system of government of which Mr. Godwin was once the strenuous advocate, as he continues, we believe, the admirer. The more rapidly the population of America increases, the greater cause there is to charge any of the governments of Europe, whose territories are not yet fully peopled, with that vice and misery which, according to Mr. Malthus, keep down their population; and from no other work, therefore, could Mr. Godwin have obtained stronger confirmations of his former darling principles. He has chosen rather to occupy himself with endeavouring to put down his personal opponent. He seems to give up the cause of liberty for the gratification of his own sense of importance, and in an imaginary triumph to sneer the most convincing logic into contempt. He is quite intolerant in his epithets; and thus wounds and disturbs by his example that philosophical spirit of discussion which his former writings so strongly recommended. The sect of philosophers to which Mr. Godwin belongs, has long complained, and sometimes with justice, that its opponents have answered arguments with abuse, and have appealed, not to the reason, but to the prejudices and passions of mankind. He shews by his present work, however, that he is angry at this mode of attack, only when it is employed against himself; and that, like other people, he has no objection to hard names, provided he alone is privileged to bestow them. A man who, like Mr. Godwin, has little or no respect for many of the most favoured opinions and prejudices of mankind, should be cautious how he assumes the spirit of an inquisitor, as otherwise he may become the martyr of his own intolerance. We are, on the whole, by no means pleased with Mr. Godwin's book. It is heavy, declamatory, and, generally speaking, unphilosophical. Some of his reasoning is more connected and convincing than, judging from his former works, we expected, and a few pieces of declamation are spirited and fine; but it has in general little of the fire and earnestness which gave an almost irresistible charm to his earlier political productions; and, like them, it is confused and turgid. The chief objects of the present work are; First, to shew from such records as exist of the ancient world, that we have in fact no reason to believe any increase has actually taken place in the whole numbers of mankind, since the beginning of authentic history; Secondly, to ascertain what is the actual power of increase in the human species; and, Thirdly, to shew that the increase of inhabitants in the United States of America, has been 'caused by immigration, and not by procreation. As to the first point, we must observe, that the records of the ancient world on the subject of population are so defective, that no accurate and well authenticated opinion can be formed on the matter; yet, on the whole, it is probable that the numbers of our race have increased, and that Mr. Godwin is wrong in his assumption. He endeavours, secondly, by a reference to the population tables of Sweden, the only ones which have been correctly kept for a series of years, to shew that, there is scarcely any power of increase in the human species. But it is quite a truism, that a similar result must always be obtained from the population-tables of every country, nearly stationary as to increase. The fact is, however, that even in Sweden, population has actually increased, at a rate sufficient to double itself in somewhat more than one hundred years, (p. 161.) and yet, the reasonings of Mr. Godwin lead him to suppose, that the number of child-bearing women is there constantly decreasing, and the population going gradually to decay. (P. 185.) Many circumstances are unfavourable to the multiplication of our species in Sweden, and consequently, any inferences drawn from the state of its population, hostile to the power of increase, can never be regarded as applicable, where mankind are placed in a more favourable situation. This part of his work does not therefore throw the shadow of a doubt on the principle of increase as stated by Mr. Malthus. The fact of the "population of the United States of North "America doubling itself for above a century and a half succes"sively, in less than twenty-five years, and which has been re"peatedly ascertained to be from procreation only," is the foundation of all Mr. Malthus's theory. Mr. Godwin labours therefore to shew, that this increase is derived not from [that source, but chiefly from immigration, which he states at eighty or ninety thousand persons yearly. (P. 405.) The only authority on which he makes this assertion, is a statement of Cobbet's, and some extracts from American newspapers; neither of which we conceive to be worthy of confidence. He has also ascertained the number of persons who left Britain for New England, at the period of its first colonization; and having found some approximation to the tonnage of British ships at that time, he makes out, by the rule of three, that the present tonnage of British ships gives an annual emigration of 43,000 persons. What relation there is between tonnage and emigration, so that he assumes them always proportionate to one another, we must leave him to explain. Ôn this topic, however, we are not destitute of better authority than a conjecture of Cobbet's, or a partial account in a Baltimore Ga zette. Mr. Seybert, in his Statistical Annals of the United States of America," gives the whole number of passengers who arrived at ten of the principal ports of America in 1817; and as this includes list all the ports to which emigrants generally go, we may conclude, that not 500, but certainly not 1000 more, arrived at all the other ports of America. We shall give this gentleman's account in his own words; but must express our surprise that any man of the least literary reputation should pretend, as Mr. Godwin does, to establish a fact, or support an argument on such insufficient statements, as those to which he has confined himself, when he might so easily have ascertained the truth. Mr. Seybert observes, correctly," that " in 1817, the emigrants were probably more numerous than in "any preceding year." The following statement extends from the 1st of January, to the 31st of December 1817. "These returns were obtained from the records of the custom"houses, except for Charlestown, which was made from the re"port of the harbour-master; they include all the passengers, "citizens, and aliens, who arrived in the ports enumerated +." Mr. Godwin must surely feel regret at having published his crude conjectures in face of this authentic document. The question, however, as to the increase in the American population, relates to a prior period, and more particularly to the Published at Philadelphia in 1818. + Seybert, p. 20. time between 1790 and 1810, the dates of the first and last census which we have yet received. Mr. Blodget estimated, in 1806, the number of emigrants who had arrived for the ten preceding years in the United States at 4000 per year. In 1794, it is supposed 10,000 arrived. Mr. Seybert thinks, therefore, and, when we take into consideration the circumstances of Europe, we are disposed to agree with him, that 6000 per year, for the twenty years above mentioned, is an ample allowance for the number of emigrants. If they increased at the most favourable rate, their whole number might amount in the twenty years to 180,000. Excluding them, the free white population of America doubled itself between 1790 and 1810, in the space of 23. 28 years, and with them in 22. 48 years,-their numbers shortening the period of doubling only four-fifths of a year †. Other facts, some of which Mr. Godwin himself has stated, satisfy us that the increase in the number of the inhabitants of the United States is chiefly from procreation. It is well known that comparatively few children go from other countries to America; now the American census shews that half the people are under sixteen years of age; while, according to the tables in Mr. Godwin's book, little more than one-third of the population of Sweden are under sixteen: or, the whole white population of America was, in 1810, 5,862,092, and of these, 2,983,211 were under sixteen; while, in 1805, the population of Sweden was, 3,320,647, and, of these, 1,126,240 were under sixteen. It is quite certain, therefore, that the greater part of the American increase arises from infants born in that country. Mr. Godwin states that women are the soil from which human creatures are produ"ced,”—that "they only can mature the germs of the human "species." Now the fact is notorious, that, comparatively, few women go from Europe to America; and, accordingly, we learn from Seybert, that the women in America are to the men as 96 to 100; while, in Great Britain, according to the census of 1811, they are as 109.99 to 100. Proportionately a much greater number of females marry in America than in Europe; the increase of people in America is, therefore, all derived from American females. 66 The only fact or statement which throws the least doubt on this subject is the following: "The white population in America, of 1800, was 4,305,971. These, in ten years, would be diminished by a fourth. It is very improbable that more than 3,200,000 would have been alive in 1810; for whatever proportion the births of that country may bear to the whole population, the proportion of * Blodget's Statistical Manual, p. 75. deaths is certainly greater than in Europe. These 3,200,000, then, should have constituted the number of those above ten years of age, in the census of 1810, had there been no importation from other countries. But the actual census above ten years of age, was 3,845,389, giving a surplus of 645,389, which can be accounted for in no other way than by immigration. The census of 1810 contains also 2,106,704 children under ten years. Part of these, too, as well as the deaths of the immigrants since their arrival, should be added to the 645,389 above stated; and therefore, of the 1,556,122 persons which the census of 1810 exhibits beyond that of 1800, it is as clear as sunshine that nearly one half was added by direct immigration." P. 282. There is something plausible in this; and from our possessing no registers of births and deaths in America, except for some very small parts of it, we are unable to say what proportion they bear, on the whole, to each other. The writer appears to us, however, quite unwarranted in assuming that "the proportion of deaths is greater than in Europe." We suppose that the probabilities of life calculated from the progress of population in Europe, are not at all applicable to America; and therefore, that though the above statement of the fourth part of the population dying in six years, is not too great for any part of Europe, it is much too large for America. Of all the European states, of whose population we have any accurate accounts, Russia most nearly resembles America; and Mr. Malthus gives, though with doubts as to its accuracy, the average of deaths to the population of this empire, as 1 in 60, or as 1 in 58. At the same time, the average mortality in Petersburgh, is 1 in 28. We find it stated in Seybert, however, that the proportion of deaths in 1814, in the city and liberties of Philadelphia, was as 1 to 43-40; and on an average of 7 years, as 1 to 41. Mr. Warden, also, in his Statistical Account of the United States, gives the proportion at Boston, as 1 to 45; at Baltimore, as 1 to 44; and at New York, as 1 to 50. These are some of the parts of America least favourable to health. "In London, according to Mr. Malthus †, one half of the born die under three years of age; in Vienna and Stockholm, under two; in Manchester, under five; in Norwich, under five; in Northampton, under ten." While in Philadelphia, according to Seybert, not half the population die under 20 years of age. We say, half the population, because the proportion of births to deaths is not given. Mr. Malthus states a similar fact as to Petersburgh, where half of all that are born do not die till 25. When we take into consideration, that comparatively few of the inhabitants of America live in towns, or are engaged in unhealthy occupations; that they are chiefly agriculturists; and that I to 45 is the average of deaths to the population in their cities, we may assume that the proportion of 1 death to 60 people, which + Book ii. chap. 3. |