THE

LOG
LOGIC

O F

PROBABILITIES.

Difcite juftitiam moniti et non temnere Divos. VIRG.

W

I.

HEREFORE fuch Alarms at the first Motions of the Infidels? They become dangerous and formidable by our timorously fuppofing them to be fo.

II.

Are we to answer the Enemies of Religion? Have they answered Abbadie and Ditton? When they have difplayed their Abilities in confuting thofe excellent Works; if we fail of a Reply, then let them fing Io Triumphe; let them exult on the Overthrow of Religion; overthrown by their Strength and Dexterity.

III.

Questions are decided two Ways; either by telling the Votes, or weighing them; but both make against the Libertines. Do they out-number Believers? God forbid. Are they more refpectable for their Knowledge and Virtue? Draw up, on one Side, all the Doctors of the Church, from Jefus Christ to the prefent Time; add to them that great Number of eminent Perfons. who have thought it their Duty to stand forth for God's Čaufe, though not engaged to it by the Character of Ecclefiaftics; as the Mornay's, the Grotius's, the Racine's; and if to this Cloud of Witnesses you contraft Vanini, Spinofa, Toland, Collins, Woolfton, and add to them the prefent Band of Writers for Impiety; is it a Question on which Side the Scale will turn?

IV.

There may be perhaps another Way for confounding Incredulity, and impofing a final Silence on it: And this is what I term the Logic of Probabilities.

V.

Should I apprehend that the Word Logic will give Offence to our Adversaries, and that a Habit of attacking Religion,

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only

only by Laughter, Witticifms, and gratuitous Affertions, has given them an eternal Disgust against any kind of formal Argumentation? If any fuch there be, here they may stop; I, for my Part, fhall proceed in the Execution of my Plan; as to fuppofe that all Infidels have fhook Hands with Reasoning would be a Trespass against the Gentleness and Equity recommended by that Religion, whofe Defence is the Subject of the prefent Chain of Ratiocination: Yet were it, or how little does it want of being a Suppofition fairly deducible from their Difcourfe, Writings, and Behaviour?

VI.

I, for the prefent, recede from all the Rights of a precife Demonftration; granted, that there is no Moral Evidence; in every Matter of Belief and Fact, we will fuppofe Probability to be the utmost Boundary of our Difquifitions. This is the Lift for our Combat; impartial and intelligent Readers are our Judges; let them determine the Victory.

VII.

I begin with asking, whether the following Questions deserve any Notice? Is there a God, a Providence, a Revelation, a Religion, a Life to come? Is it a Matter of

Indifference to be mistaken in all these Points? Is it a Wafte of Time to employ it in the Examination of them? Is it a ridiculous Prudence to make these Articles as much our Concern, to use the fame Precautions in them, as in the Acquifition of an Employment, the Purchase of an Estate, and a Marriage? They who dare maintain the Affirmative, are still far without those Limits within which I confine myself. It is not with fuch that I fhall enter into Difpute. Every Dispute requires a reciprocal Admiffion of certain common Principles. They who can speak of those great Queftions, as Trifles, have no Principles; and, till they have, are not qualified for Reasoning.

VIII.

Religion therefore is an interesting Object, or at least would be fuch, were its Reality well demonftrated. This is the Defile, where I put my Antagonists to a Stand.

IX.

What do you wait for, (it is to them I fpeak) to act in worldly Concerns? What is that which determines you to seek or to fhun? To what do you devote your Cares and Endeavours? If your Activity were ever to be preceded by the blazing Flambeau

of Demonftration, you would bid fair to continue, your whole Life, with your Arms folded, there being no Enterprise in the Life of Man, the Event of which is infallible. Accordingly very different are the Principles of your human Prudence: The firft Glimpfe of Succefs rouses and ftimulates your Powers; as this Glimmering becomes more luminous, you redouble your Alacrity, and in general you proportion the Degrees of your Ardour to those of the Probabilities.

X.

You do more and very juftly: When an Object is extremely defirable, and the Poffeffion nearly concerns you; not only favourable Appearances incite you to the Perfuit of it, but you are not disheartened by adverse Appearances; and nothing less than the manifeft Impoffibility of Success can prevail on you to give over. Man teems with vifionary Projects, and fo far is he from overlooking any real Probabilities, that he is rather apt to suppose them where they are wanting.

XI.

But in this Man, fo alert, fo fanguine, and enterprifing, if Religion be recommended to his Attention, what a Metamorphofis! His Powers flag; he is quite

torpid