The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference
Cambridge University Press, 31 de jul de 2006 - 209 páginas
Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century, although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. Ian Hacking presents a philosophical critique of early ideas about probability, induction, and statistical inference and the growth of this new family of ideas in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth centuries. Hacking invokes a wide intellectual framework involving the growth of science, economics, and the theology of the period. He argues that the transformations that made it possible for probability concepts to emerge have constrained all subsequent development of probability theory and determine the space within which philosophical debate on the subject is still conducted. First published in 1975, this edition includes an introduction that contextualizes his book in light of developing philosophical trends. Ian Hacking is the winner of the Holberg International Memorial Prize 2009.
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An absent family of ideas I
The first calculations
The Roannez circle 1654
The great decision 1658?
Political arithmetic 1662
The art of conjecturing 1692? published 1713
which both undertakes a selfconscious analysis of the concept of probability
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aleatory annuities Arbuthnot argued arithmetic authority Bayes called Cardano certainty chapter coin concept of evidence concept of probability conjecture credibility degree of belief demonstration Descartes dice distinction doctrine doctrine of chances efficient causes emergence of probability epistemic probability epistemological equally possible equally probable equipossibility estimator event example expectation experience fact Fermat frequency Galileo gamble games of chance Graunt happen Hence Hudde Hume Huygens hypothesis ideas inductive logic inference internal evidence Jacques Bernoulli kind of evidence knowledge L. J. Savage language Laplace Leibniz lottery mathematics matter modern Moivre mortality nature notion observed opinion outcomes Paracelsus particular Pascal philosophical plague Port Royal Port Royal Logic prior probability probabilism probabilistic probability theory problem of induction propensity proposition published question random reasoning Renaissance Roannez sceptical problem seventeenth century signs statistical suppose testimony things Thomas Bayes thought tion wager Wilkins Witt word wrote
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