articles of corn, malt, leather, hops, beer, and many others, do not come under this objection of inaccuracy. The article of CERTIFICATE GOODS re-exported, a vaft branch of our commerce, admits of no errour (except fome fmaller frauds which cannot be estimated), as they have all a drawback of duty, and the exporter muft therefore correctly fpecify their quantity and kind. The author therefore is not warranted from the known errour in fome of the entries, to make a general defalcation from the whole balance in our favour. This errour cannot affect more than half, if fo much, of the export article. 2dly. In the account made up at the inspector general's office, they estimate only the original coft of British products as they are here purchased; and on foreign goods, only the prices in the country from whence they are fent. This was the method established by Mr. Davenant; and, as far as it goes, it certainly is a good one. But the profits of the merchant at home, and of our factories abroad, are not taken into the account: which profit on fuch an immenfe quantity of goods exported and re-exported cannot fail of being very great: five per cent. upon the whole, I fhould think a very moderate allowance. 3dly. It does not comprehend the advantage arifing from the employment of 600,000 tons of fhipping, which must be paid by the foreign confumer, and which, in many bulky articles of commerce, is

equal to the value of the commodity. This can fcarcely be rated at lefs than a million annually. 4thly, The whole import from Ireland and America, and from the Weft Indies, is fet against us in the ordinary way of ftriking a balance of imports and exports; whereas the import and export are both our own. This is juft as ridiculous, as to put against the general balance of the nation, how much more goods Cheshire receives from London, than London from Chefhire. The whole revolves and circulates through this kingdom, and is, so far as it regards our profit, in the nature of home trade, as much as if the feveral countries of America and Ireland were all pieced to Cornwall. The courfe of exchange with all these places is fully fufficient to demonftrate that this kingdom has the whole advantage of their commerce. When the final profit upon a whole fyftem of trade refts and centers in a certain place, a balance ftruck in that place merely on the mutual fale of commodities is quite fallacious. 5thly, The cuftom-houfe entries furnish a moft defective, and indeed ridiculous idea, of the most valuable branch of trade we have in the world, that with Newfoundland. Obferve what you export thither; a little fpirits, provifion, fishing lines, and fifhing hooks. Is this erport the true idea of the Newfoundland trade in the light of a beneficial branch of commerce? nothing lefs, Examine our imports from thence; it

feems,

1

feems, upon this vulgar idea of exports and imports, to turn the balance against you. But your exports to Newfoundland are your own goods. Your import is your own food; as much your own, as that you raife with your ploughs out of your own foil; and not your lofs, but your gain; your riches, not your poverty. But fo fallacious is this way of judging, that neither the export nor import, nor both together, fupply any idea approaching to adequate of that branch of business. The vessels in that trade go ftrait from Newfoundland to the foreign market; and the fale there, not the import here, is the meafure of its value. That trade which is one of your greatest and best is hardly fo much as feen in the custom-house entries; and it is not of lefs annual value to this nation than £.400,000. 6thly, The quality of your imports must be confidered as well as the quantity. To state the whole of the foreign import as lofs, is exceedingly abfurd. All the iron, hemp, flax, cotton, Spanish wool, raw filk, woollen and linen yarn, which we import, are by no means to be confidered as the matter of a merely luxurious confumption; which is the idea too generally and loofely annexed to our import article. Thefe above-mentioned are materials of industry, not of luxury, which are wrought up here, in many instances, to ten times, and more, of their original yalue. Even where they are not fubfervient to

Our

our exports, they ftill add to our internal wealth, which confifts in the ftock of useful commodities, as much as in gold and filver, In looking over the fpecifick articles of our export and import, I have often been astonished to fee for how fmall a part of the fupply of our confumption, either luxurious or convenient, we are indebted to nations properly foreign to us,

These confiderations are entirely paffed over by the author; they have been but too much neglected by most who have fpeculated on this fubject. But they ought never to be omitted by thofe who mean to come to any thing like the true ftate of the British trade. They compenfate, and they more than compenfate, every thing which the author can cut off with any appearance of reason for the over-entry of British goods; and they reftore to us that balance of four millions, which the author has thought proper on fuch a very poor and limited comprehenfion of the object to reduce to £.2,500,000.

In general this author is fo circumstanced, that to fupport his theory he is obliged to affume his facts and then, if you allow his facts, they will not fupport his conclufions. What if all he fays of the state of this balance were true? did not the fame objections always lie to cuftom-houfe entries? do they defalcate more from the entries of 1766 than from thofe of 1754? If they prove us ruined,

we

we were always ruined. Some ravens have always indeed croaked out this kind of fong. They have a malignant delight in prefaging mischief, when they are not employed in doing it: they are miferable and disappointed at every inftance of the publick profperity. They overlook us like the malevolent being of the poet:

Tritonida confpicit arcem

Ingeniis, opibufque, et festa pace virentem ; Vixque tenet lacrymas quia nil lacrymabile cernit.

It is in this fpirit that fome have looked upon thofe accidents that caft an occafional damp upon trade. Their imaginations entail thefe accidents upon us in perpetuity. We have had fome bad harvests. This muft very disadvantageously affect the balance of trade, and the navigation of a people, fo large a part of whofe commerce is in grain. But, in knowing the cause, we are morally certain, that, according to the courfe of events, it cannot long fubfift. In the three laft years, we have exported fcarcely any grain; in good years, that export hath been worth twelve hundred thoufand pounds and more; in the two laft years, far from exporting, we have been obliged to import to the amount perhaps of our former exportation. So that, in this article the balance must be £.2,000,000 against us; that is, one million in the ceafing