of the Confiderations was pleased to foretel they would be. The author of The Prefent State avails himself of that encreafe, and, finding it fuit his purpose, fets the whole down in the peace ef tabliffiment of the prefent times. If this is allowed him, his error perhaps may be reduced to £.700,000. But I doubt the author of the Confiderations will not thank him for admitting £.200,000 and upwards, as the peace establishment for extraordinaries, when that author has fo much laboured to confine them within £. 35,000. These are fome of the capital fallacies of the author. To break the thread of my difcourfe as little as poffible, I have thrown into the margin many inftances, though God knows far from the whole, of his inaccuracies, inconfiftencies, and want of common care. I think myself obliged to take fome notice of them, in order to take off from any authority this writer may have; and to put an end to the deference which carelefs men are apt to pay to one who boldly arrays his accounts, and marthals his figures, in perfect confidence that their correctnefs will never be examined *. However, Upon the money borrowed in 1760, the premium of one per cent. was for 21 years, not for 20; this annuity has been paid eight years inftead of feven; the fum paid is therefore £.640,000 instead of 560,000; the remaining term is worth 10 years However, for argument, I am content to take his state of it. The debt was and is enormous. 1 years and a quarter inftead of 11 years; its value is £.820,000 inftead of £.880,000; and the whole value of that premium is £.1,460,000 inftead of £.1,440,000. The like errours are obfervable in his computation on the additional capital of three per cent. on the loan of that year. In like manner, on the loan of 1762, the author computes on five years payment instead. of fix; and fays in exprefs terms, that take 5 from 19, and there remains 13. Thefe are not errours of the pen or the prefs; the feveral computations purfued in this part of the work with great diligence and earnestness prove them errours upon much deliberation. Thus the premiums in 1759 are caft up £.90,000 too little, an errour in the first rule of arithmetic. "The annuities borrowed in 1756 and 1758 are," fays he, "to continue till redeemed by parliament." He does not take notice that the firft are irredeemable till February 1771, the other till July 1782. In this the amount of the premiums is computed on the time which they have run, Weakly and ignorantly; for he might have added to this, and strengthened his argument, fuch as it is, by charging alfo the value of the additional one per cent. from the day on which he wrote to, at leaft that day on which thefe annuities become redeemable."" To make ample amends, however, he has added to the premiums of 15 per cent. in 1759, and three per cent. in 1760, the annuity paid for them fince their commencement.;. the fallacy of which is manifeft; for the premiums in thefe cafes can be neither more nor less than the additional capital for which the publick stands engaged, and is juft the fame whether five or 500 years annuity has been paid for it. In private life, no man perfuades himself that he has borrowed £.200, becaufe be happens to have paid 20 years intereft on loan of £.100, *See Smart and Demoivre, The The war was expenfive. The best œconomy had not perhaps been used. But I muft obferve, that war and economy are things not eafily reconciled; and that the attempt of leaning towards parfimony in fuch a state may be the worft management, and in the end the worst œconomy in the world, hazarding the total lofs of all the charge incurred, and of every thing along with it. But cui bono all this detail of our debt? has the author given a fingle light towards any material reduction of it? Not a glimmering. We shall fee in its place what fort of thing he proposes. But before he commences his operations, in order to fcare the publick imagination, he raises by art magick a thick mift before our eyes, through which glare the moft ghaftly and horrible phantoms: Hunc igitur terrorem animi tenebrafque neceffe eft, Let us therefore calmly, if we can for the fright into which he has put us, appreciate thofe dreadful and deformed gorgons and hydras, which inhabit the joylefs regions of an imagination, fruitful in nothing but the production of monsters. His whole reprefentation is founded on the suppofed operation of our debt, upon our manufactures, and our trade. To this caufe he attributes a certain a certain fuppofed dearnefs of the neceffaries of life, which must compel our manufacturers to emigrate to cheaper countries, particularly to France, and with them the manufacture. Thence confumption declining, and with it revenue. He will not per mit the real balance of our trade to be estimated fo high as £.2,500,000; and the intereft of the debt to foreigners carries off £.1,500,000 of that balance. France is not in the fame condition. Then follow his wailings and lamentings, which he renews over and over, according to his cuftoma declining trade, and decreafing fpecie-on the point of becoming tributary to France-of lofing Ireland-of having the colonies torn away from us. The first thing upon which I fhall obferve is,* what he takes for granted as the cleareft of all propofitions, the emigration of our manufacturers to France. I undertake to fay that this affertion is totally groundlefs, and I challenge the author to bring any fort of proof of it. If living is cheaper in France, that is, to be had for lefs fpecie, wages are proportionably lower. No manufacturer, let the living be what it will, was ever known to fly for refuge to low wages. Money is the firft thing which attracts him. Accordingly our wages attract artificers from all parts of the world. From * P. 30, 31, 32. two |