INTRODUCTION, pp. 3-21. Difficulties of the 'philosophy of history,' p. 3. Rise and successes of the Regicide Republic, p. 6. England often at her strongest when she believes herself to be weakest,

as in 1757, p. 9. The nation to be awakened, p. 10. Double aspect of the Wealth of England, p. 12. England cannot act apart

B

from Europe, p. 13. Discreditable issue of the war hitherto, p. 14. Disaster abroad reflected in distemper at home, p. 16, which is explained by the want of high-principled leaders, p. 18. The peculiar character of a war with a Regicide State, p. 19. This leads the author (Part I) to review the history of the Overtures for Peace already made by the English Government, and to show from them that no Peace is seriously contemplated by France. Thence (Part II) to show that these Overtures cannot accord with the sentiments of the English nation, and lastly (Part III) to show that the nature of the Regicide Republic is such that no Peace could be made with it.

PART I, pp. 21–46.

HISTORY OF THE OVERTURES FOR PEACE.

Indications of French temper. Bird's mission, p. 22; Hamburg declaration, p. 24.

Ist OVERTURES. Speech from the Throne, Oct. 29, 1795, and reply of 5th Pluviose (Jan. 25, 1796), p. 25.

2nd OVERTURES. Note of March 8, 1796, from Mr. Wickham to M. Barthélémy, and answer of the latter, March 26, p. 30. Downing Street Note of April 10, p. 35. Disasters of the Summer, and failure of rumoured Prussian mediation, p. 36.

PRESENT OVERTURES. Lord Grenville's request, through the Danish Minister, for a passport for an English plenipotentiary, Sept. 6, 1796, p. 37. Refusal of the French Government, Sept. 19, p. 38. Lord Grenville applies directly, by the note of Sept. 19, and the passport is despatched on the 11th of Vendémiaire. The first manifesto, issued at the same time as the passport, proves the futility of going on with the negotiations, p. 40. These views confirmed by the second manifesto of Oct. 5. p. 42. Burke mournfully contrasts the present with the former attitude of the Government, and quotes the famous WHITEHALL DECLARATION of Oct. 29, 1793, P. 44.

PART II, pp. 46–68.

THE OVERTURES DO NOT REPRESENT THE FEELING OF THE BRITISH NATION.

They are contrary to the policy of England, p. 46, and to the disposition

of the nation, p. 47. The Jacobins a minority, p. 50. Dulness and inaction of the sound part of the nation, p. 51. A popular war, such as the Spanish War of 1739, is produced by superficial causes : the deep causes of the present war require to be explained and

CAUSES OF ANXIETY.

3

enforced, p. 53. Power of the British nation under a great leader fully illustrated by the history of the great war with France, 16891713, pp. 55-68. Weakness of England then as a military power, p. 57, an isolated nation, with little commerce, p. 58. In spite of all this, Unanimous Address of a factious House of Commons in 1697 against the Enemy's Overtures for Peace, p. 59. Continuation of William's Great War, p. 61. He carries it on against the Ministry and People, and converts the Lords to his views, p. 63, and ultimately the Commons, p. 64. Conclusion drawn from this, p. 65. If the war against Louis XIV was thus heroically carried on, how much more should the present war be fought out, p. 68.

PART III, pp. 68-99.

WHY NO PEACE POSSIBLE WITH FRANCE.

A state based on the principles of Regicide, Jacobinism, and Atheism (p. 70), and fortified by the propagation of a corresponding system of manners and morals (pp. 72-78), is a standing menace to Europe. Europe is a moral and social unity (p. 79) in which France has violently isolated herself, and taken up a position of hostility, p. 81. Position of Europe and France illustrated from the Civil Law, p. 82, and the war upon France justified by the principles of the Law of Vicinage, p. 85. The condition of France transferred for the sake of argument to England, p. 86. The case of Algiers distinguished, p. 91. CONCLUSION, pp. 94-99. Popular opinion no safe guide: the decision must rest with Ministers, p. 95. Scheme of future letters, arranged in six heads, p. 96. Personal explanation, p. 97.]

MY DEAR SIR,

OUR last conversation, though not in the tone of absolute despondency, was far from chearful. We could not easily ( account for some unpleasant appearances. They were represented to us as indicating the state of the popular mind; and they were not at all what we should have expected from our old ideas even of the faults and vices of the English character. The disastrous events, which

have followed one upon another in a long unbroken funereal train, moving in a procession that seemed to have no end-these were not the principal causes of our dejection. We feared more from what threatened to fail within, than what menaced to oppress us from abroad. To a people who have once been proud and great, and great because they were proud, a change in the national spirit is the most terrible of all revolutions.

I shall not live to behold the unravelling of the intricate plot, which saddens and perplexes the awful drama of Providence, now acting on the moral theatre of the world. Whether for thought or for action, I am at the end of my career. You are in the middle of yours. In what part of it's orbit the nation, with which we are carried along, moves at this instant, it is not easy to conjecture. may, perhaps, be far advanced in its aphelion. But when

to return?

It

I am

Not to lose ourselves in the infinite void of the conjectural world, our business is with what is likely to be affected for the better or the worse by the wisdom or weakness of our plans. In all speculations upon men and human affairs, it is of no small moment to distinguish things of accident from permanent causes, and from effects that cannot be altered. It is not every irregularity in our movement that is a total deviation from our course. not quite of the mind of those speculators, who seem assured, that necessarily, and by the constitution of things, all States have the same periods of infancy, manhood, and decrepitude, that are found in the individuals who compose them. Parallels of this sort rather furnish similitudes to illustrate or to adorn, than supply analogies from whence to reason. The objects which are attempted to be forced into an analogy are not found in the same classes of existence. Individuals are physical beings, subject to laws

PHILOSOPHY OF HISTORY.

5

universal and invariable. The immediate cause acting in these laws may be obscure: the general results are subjects of certain calculation. But commonwealths are not physical but moral essences. They are artificial combinations; and, in their proximate efficient cause, the arbitrary productions of the human mind. We are not yet acquainted with the laws which necessarily influence the stability of that kind of work made by that kind of agent. There is not in the physical order (with which they do not appear to hold any assignable connexion) a distinct cause by which any of those fabrics must necessarily grow, flourish, or decay; nor, in my opinion, does the moral world produce any thing more determinate on that subject, than what may serve as an amusement (liberal indeed, and ingenious, but still only an amusement) for speculative men. I doubt whether the history of mankind is yet complete enough, if ever it can be so, to furnish grounds for a sure theory on the internal causes which necessarily affect the fortune of a State. I am far from denying the operation of such causes but they are infinitely uncertain, and much more obscure, and much more difficult to trace, than the foreign causes that tend to raise, to depress, and sometimes to overwhelm a community.

It is often impossible, in these political enquiries, to find any proportion between the apparent force of any moral causes we may assign, and their known operation. We are therefore obliged to deliver up that operation to mere chance; or, more piously (perhaps more rationally), to the occasional interposition and the irresistible hand of the Great Disposer. We have seen States of considerable duration, which for ages have remained nearly as they have begun, and could hardly be said to ebb or flow. Some appear to have spent their vigour at their commencement. Some have blazed out in their glory a little before